George Kittle Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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George Kittle

NFL · Player Props

George Kittle

TE · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

Atlanta Falcons vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

George Kittle Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-195/+145).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 42.8 pass attempts per game versus the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 2nd-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects George Kittle to accumulate 6.4 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 94th percentile among TEs.
George Kittle has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 21.6% since the start of last season, which places him in the 98th percentile among tight ends.
George Kittle has been among the leading pass-catching tight ends since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 4.1 receptions per game while checking in at the 94th percentile.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 5th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 56.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 9th-least plays in the league this year, totaling just 56.6 plays per game.
The Atlanta Falcons safeties profile as the 7th-best collection of safeties in the league this year in pass coverage.

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