George Kittle Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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George Kittle

NFL · Player Props

George Kittle

TE · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

Las Vegas Raiders vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 9:11 PM UTC

Analysis

George Kittle Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-143/+110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects George Kittle to earn 6.7 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 94th percentile among TEs.
George Kittle has been among the leading TEs in the pass game this year, averaging a stellar 4.0 receptions per game while checking in at the 90th percentile.
George Kittle's sure-handedness have gotten better this year, with his Completion% jumping from 74.2% to 78.6%.
The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has allowed the 9th-highest Completion% in the league (74.9%) vs. TEs this year (74.9%).

Favors Under

The 49ers are a 6-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 8th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 53.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
George Kittle's 39.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this year than it was last year at 46.2.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on a lowly 3.4% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in football). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.

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