George Kittle Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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George Kittle

NFL · Player Props

George Kittle

TE · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 9:21 PM UTC

Analysis

George Kittle Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+125/-160).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +135 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the 49ers to run the 3rd-most total plays among all teams this week with 67.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects George Kittle to accumulate 4.7 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 83rd percentile among TEs.
The San Francisco 49ers offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
George Kittle has been among the leading pass-game tight ends this year, averaging a terrific 3.8 receptions per game while grading out in the 90th percentile.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has given up the 10th-highest Completion% in football (75.2%) to tight ends this year (75.2%).

Favors Under

The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 4th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 51.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
George Kittle's 34.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 46.2.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties rank as the best collection of safeties in the league this year in regard to pass rush.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on a lowly 3.4% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in the league). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

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