George Kittle Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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George Kittle

NFL · Player Props

George Kittle

TE · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

Chicago Bears vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 7, 2022 7:13 PM UTC

Analysis

George Kittle Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-150/+115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +115 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 27.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: least in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects George Kittle to total 5.6 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 93rd percentile among TEs.
George Kittle has been a key part of his team's offense, posting a Target Share of 22.7% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 98th percentile among TEs.
The San Francisco 49ers offensive line ranks as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
George Kittle has been among the best TEs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 4.5 receptions per game while checking in at the 94th percentile.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a heavy 7-point favorite in this week's game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 47.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-least plays run among all games this week at 119.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers offense as the 9th-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 27.76 seconds per snap.
The Chicago Bears pass defense has surrendered the 6th-lowest Completion% in the league (65.4%) to TEs since the start of last season (65.4%).

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