George Kittle Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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George Kittle

NFL · Player Props

George Kittle

TE · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

George Kittle Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 42.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 43.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 42.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 42.8 pass attempts per game versus the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 2nd-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects George Kittle to accumulate 6.4 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 94th percentile among TEs.
George Kittle has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 21.6% since the start of last season, which places him in the 98th percentile among tight ends.
George Kittle has totaled a monstrous 52.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 95th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 5th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 56.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 9th-least plays in the league this year, totaling just 56.6 plays per game.
George Kittle's receiving effectiveness has diminished this season, notching just 7.55 yards-per-target compared to a 9.36 rate last season.

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