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George Kittle

George Kittle Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 13

San Francisco 49ers vs Miami Dolphins

George Kittle Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+179/-263).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +203 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +179.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Opposing offenses have averaged 36.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 10th-most in football.

George Kittle has been an integral part of his team's offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 18.9% this year, which puts him in the 89th percentile among tight ends.

The San Francisco 49ers offensive line profiles as the 9th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

George Kittle ranks in the 97th percentile among tight ends as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging a terrific 0.44 per game.

The Miami Dolphins pass defense has yielded the 2nd-highest Completion% in the NFL (80.5%) to tight ends this year (80.5%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The 49ers are a huge 8.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

George Kittle has totaled significantly fewer air yards this season (37.0 per game) than he did last season (55.0 per game).

George Kittle's 37.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this year than it was last year at 51.1.

The Miami Dolphins defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 3rd-best in the league since the start of last season.

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