George Kittle Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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George Kittle

NFL · Player Props

George Kittle

TE · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving TD

San Francisco 49ers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

George Kittle Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+166/-236).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +190 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +166.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
George Kittle has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 19.4% this year, which ranks him in the 90th percentile among TEs.
The San Francisco 49ers O-line ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
George Kittle ranks in the 98th percentile among tight ends as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging an impressive 0.50 per game.
The New Orleans Saints pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a heavy 8.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace out of all the games this week, averaging 26.96 seconds per play given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 9th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 55.9 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.8 pass attempts per game versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 7th-least in the NFL.
George Kittle has accumulated quite a few less air yards this year (40.0 per game) than he did last year (58.0 per game).

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