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George Kittle

George Kittle Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 10

San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Chargers

George Kittle Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+223/-347).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +227 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +223.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

George Kittle has been a key part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 21.7% this year, which places him in the 92nd percentile among TEs.

The San Francisco 49ers O-line ranks as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing game metrics across the board.

George Kittle's receiving reliability have gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% rising from 75.6% to 79.5%.

George Kittle ranks in the 90th percentile among tight ends when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a stellar 0.33 per game.

The San Francisco 49ers have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The 49ers are a heavy 7.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 127.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The San Francisco 49ers have run the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 55.9 plays per game.

George Kittle has posted significantly fewer air yards this season (43.0 per game) than he did last season (58.0 per game).

George Kittle's 40.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 51.7.

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