George Kittle Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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George Kittle

NFL · Player Props

George Kittle

TE · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving TD

Chicago Bears vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 7, 2022 5:25 PM UTC

Analysis

George Kittle Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+174/-251).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +187 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +174.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 27.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: least in the NFL.
George Kittle has been a key part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 15.2% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 83rd percentile among tight ends.
George Kittle has notched a monstrous 58.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 96th percentile among tight ends.
George Kittle's 51.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the league: 98th percentile for tight ends.
The San Francisco 49ers offensive line ranks as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing offense stats across the board.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a heavy 7-point favorite in this week's game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-least plays run among all games this week at 119.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers offense as the 9th-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 27.76 seconds per snap.
The Chicago Bears pass defense has surrendered the 6th-lowest Completion% in the league (65.4%) to TEs since the start of last season (65.4%).
The Chicago Bears defense has conceded the 9th-least TDs through the air in football to tight ends: 0.29 per game since the start of last season.

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