Geoff Swaim Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Geoff Swaim

TE · Tennessee Titans

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Tennessee Titans · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Geoff Swaim Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-107/-123).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -121 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -123.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Geoff Swaim has been on the field for 65.5% of his team's snaps this year, ranking him in the 76th percentile among tight ends.
Geoff Swaim's receiving reliability have improved this season, with his Completion% jumping from 81.3% to 85.7%.
The Washington Commanders pass defense has shown poor efficiency versus tight ends since the start of last season, surrendering 7.97 yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-most in the league.
The Washington Commanders linebackers profile as the 4th-worst unit in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Tennessee Titans have been faced with a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 6th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 54.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Titans to call the 6th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the least plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 50.5 plays per game.
The Tennessee Titans O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
Geoff Swaim has been among the bottom tight ends in the league at generating extra yardage, averaging a mere 3.68 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 14th percentile.