Geno Smith Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Geno Smith

NFL · Player Props

Geno Smith

QB · New York Jets

Touchdowns

New England Patriots vs New York Jets · Week 6, 2026

Updated Oct 18, 2026 3:47 PM EST

Analysis

Geno Smith Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1011/-1150).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a big 7-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the New York Jets to pass on 60.1% of their downs: the 5th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being projected in this game) generally correlate with increased passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and lower ground volume.
When it comes to pocket protection (and the positive impact it has on all passing offense stats), the O-line of the Jets grades out as the 6th-best in the league this year.
With an exceptional 69.7% Adjusted Completion% (97th percentile) this year, Geno Smith places as one of the most on-target passers in the NFL.

Favors Under

Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to have just 124.5 plays on offense called: the lowest number among all games this week.
While Geno Smith has earned 0.0% of his offense's red zone run game usage in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a more integral piece of New York's ground game near the end zone in this game at 11.5%.
This year, the stout New England Patriots defense has conceded a mere 1.20 passing touchdowns per game to opposing QBs: the 9th-smallest rate in the NFL.
When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, New England's unit has been dreadful this year, profiling as the worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

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