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Geno Smith

Geno Smith Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 6

Las Vegas Raiders vs Tennessee Titans

Geno Smith Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1150/-1800).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1000 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1800.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

With a 61.8% rate of throwing the ball near the goal line (in a neutral context) this year, the 7th-most pass-centric offense in football in this setting has been the Raiders.

The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.

The Las Vegas Raiders O-line grades out as the 9th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.

The rushing touchdown field reads "0" on the back of Geno Smith's trading card this year.

This year, the porous Tennessee Titans defense has given up a whopping 75.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 6th-highest rate in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's spread implies a rushing game script for the Raiders, who are favored by 3.5 points.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by our trusted projection set to see only 127.5 total plays run: the 5th-fewest out of all the games this week.

Geno Smith's 64.9% Adjusted Completion% this season indicates a material regression in his throwing precision over last season's 70.1% mark.

The opposing side have rushed for the most touchdowns in the NFL (2.00 per game) versus the Titans defense this year.

As it relates to the safeties' role in run defense, Tennessee's collection of safeties has been terrible this year, projecting as the worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

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