Geno Smith TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Geno Smith

QB · New York Jets

TD Passes

New York Jets vs Cleveland Browns · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 12:57 PM EST

Analysis

Geno Smith TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+146/-175).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +129 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +146.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Browns defense has been something of pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing teams to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the NFL (41.0 per game) this year.
The New York Jets offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Geno Smith's 72.2% Adjusted Completion% this year reflects a material gain in his passing precision over last year's 66.8% mark.
The Browns defense has given up the 5th-most passing TDs in the NFL: 2.25 per game this year.
As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Cleveland's unit has been dreadful this year, grading out as the 2nd-worst in the league.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the New York Jets as the 4th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 53.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
With a 48.1% rate of passing the ball in the red zone (in a neutral context) this year, the 10th-least pass-oriented team in football in these cases has been the Jets.
The projections expect the New York Jets offense to be the 3rd-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 30.19 seconds per play.
The projections expect Geno Smith to attempt 31.4 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 6th-fewest out of all quarterbacks.
This year, the formidable Browns defense has allowed a puny 68.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 9th-lowest rate in football.