Geno Smith TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Geno Smith

QB · New York Jets

TD Passes

Chicago Bears vs New York Jets · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 1:07 PM EST

Analysis

Geno Smith TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+135/-170).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -160 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -170.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A passing game script is indicated by the Jets being a -3.5-point underdog in this game.
Geno Smith's throwing accuracy has gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 66.8% to 75.3%.
Since the start of last season, the poor Bears defense has been torched for a colossal 73.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 5th-worst rate in the league.
The Bears defense has given up the 7th-most touchdowns through the air in the league: 1.75 per game since the start of last season.

Favors Under

With a 50.0% rate of passing the ball in the red zone (in a neutral context) this year, the 9th-least pass-oriented offense in the NFL in this setting has been the Jets.
Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Jets are projected by the projection model to run only 62.4 offensive plays in this game: the 7th-lowest number on the slate this week.
Opposing offenses teams have been reluctant to rely on the passing game too much against the Chicago Bears, totaling the 10th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 30.4 per game) since the start of last season.
The Chicago Bears linebackers project as the best collection of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in defending receivers.