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Geno Smith

Geno Smith TD Passes
Player Prop Week 4

Detroit Lions vs Seattle Seahawks

Geno Smith TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +109 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This week's line suggests a passing game script for the Seahawks, who are -6-point underdogs.

Our trusted projections expect the Seattle Seahawks to be the most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 64.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The model projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.2 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

The projections expect Geno Smith to attempt 39.1 passes in this game, on balance: the most among all QBs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Seahawks rank as the least pass-heavy offense in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year with a 33.3% red zone pass rate.

The 2nd-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Seahawks since the start of last season (just 54.8 per game on average).

The Seattle offensive line grades out as the worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative influence on all air attack stats across the board.

Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 6th-lowest level in the league versus the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season (66.8% Adjusted Completion%).

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