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Geno Smith

Geno Smith TD Passes
Player Prop Week 3

Seattle Seahawks vs Miami Dolphins

Geno Smith TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-115/-119).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -106 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Seahawks to pass on 60.3% of their chances: the 8th-highest frequency on the slate this week.

The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 130.9 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.

The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and lower run volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

Our trusted projections expect Geno Smith to throw 35.4 passes in this contest, on balance: the 10th-most out of all quarterbacks.

Opposing teams have completed passes at the 7th-highest level in the NFL against the Miami Dolphins defense since the start of last season (72.5% Adjusted Completion%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 44.4% rate of passing the ball near the end zone (in a neutral context) this year, the 8th-least pass-centric team in football in this respect has been the Seahawks.

The Seahawks have run the 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a mere 54.9 plays per game.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game against the Miami Dolphins defense since the start of last season: 8th-fewest in football.

The Seahawks offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful influence on all passing offense metrics across the board.

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