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Geno Smith

Geno Smith TD Passes
Player Prop Week 14

Arizona Cardinals vs Seattle Seahawks

Geno Smith TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+100/-129).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A passing game script is indicated by the Seahawks being a -3-point underdog this week.

The predictive model expects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 64.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The Seahawks have been the 9th-most pass-focused team in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) this year with a 57.0% red zone pass rate.

The model projects the Seattle Seahawks offense to be the 4th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 26.91 seconds per play.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Seattle O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.

The Cardinals defense has yielded the 9th-fewest touchdowns through the air in football: 1.17 per game this year.

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