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Geno Smith

Geno Smith TD Passes
Player Prop Week 1

Seattle Seahawks vs Denver Broncos

Geno Smith TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 6th-highest rate in football vs. the Broncos defense last year (73.0% Adjusted Completion%).

Last year, the deficient Broncos defense has been torched for a staggering 1.71 TDs through the air per game to opposing QBs: the 6th-largest rate in the NFL.

When it comes to linebackers in pass coverage, Denver's LB corps has been awful last year, ranking as the worst in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's line indicates a running game script for the Seahawks, who are favored by 4.5 points.

The model projects the Seahawks to be the 10th-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 55.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Seattle Seahawks are projected by the model to run only 62.2 offensive plays in this contest: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.

The Seahawks have run the 3rd-fewest plays in the league last year, averaging just 54.6 plays per game.

The projections expect Geno Smith to throw 32.0 passes in this contest, on balance: the 5th-fewest among all quarterbacks.

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