Geno Smith TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Geno Smith

NFL · Player Props

Geno Smith

QB · Seattle Seahawks

TD Passes

Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Geno Smith TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-146/+114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -148 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -146.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the moment, the 9th-most pass-focused team in the NFL (62.9% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Seahawks.
Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being called for in this game) typically mean increased passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and lower run volume.
Geno Smith has been one of the most accurate QBs in the NFL this year with an exceptional 69.2% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 88th percentile.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 6th-highest clip in the NFL against the Cardinals defense this year (75.0% Adjusted Completion%).
The Arizona Cardinals defense has given up the 9th-most passing touchdowns in the NFL: 1.50 per game this year.

Favors Under

This week's line indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Seahawks, who are a heavy favorite by 8.5 points.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is anticipated by the projections to see just 127.1 offensive plays called: the 4th-lowest number among all games this week.

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