Geno Smith TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Geno Smith

NFL · Player Props

Geno Smith

QB · Seattle Seahawks

TD Passes

Cincinnati Bengals vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 11:21 PM EST

Analysis

Geno Smith TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+100/-130).

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Seahawks are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of a reliance on throwing than their usual game plan.
The projections expect the Seattle Seahawks as the 8th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 60.1% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect the Seahawks offense to be the 8th-fastest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 27.18 seconds per snap.
This year, the anemic Cincinnati Bengals defense has allowed a monstrous 1.60 passing TDs per game to opposing offenses: the 6th-largest rate in the NFL.
When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Cincinnati's unit has been easily exploitable this year, profiling as the 3rd-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

With a 46.6% rate of passing the ball near the end zone (adjusted for context) this year, the 5th-least pass-heavy team in the league in this setting has been the Seahawks.
Opposing offenses have averaged 30.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 6th-fewest in the league.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 6th-lowest level in football versus the Bengals defense this year (63.7% Adjusted Completion%).

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