Geno Smith TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Geno Smith

NFL · Player Props

Geno Smith

QB · Seattle Seahawks

TD Passes

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:30 PM EST

Analysis

Geno Smith TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+202/-294).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -224 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -294.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Seahawks are a giant 8.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
Geno Smith has been among the best precision passers in football since the start of last season with a stellar 71.7% Completion%, checking in at the 93rd percentile.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone no-huddle on 15.5% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-most in football). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat accumulation.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 5th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 51.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to run the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 58.7 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Seattle Seahawks have run the least plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling just 55.1 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 20-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Geno Smith to attempt 27.6 passes in this week's game, on average: the 2nd-least of all quarterbacks.

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