Geno Smith Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Geno Smith

QB · New York Jets

Rushing Yards

New England Patriots vs New York Jets · Week 6, 2026

Updated Oct 18, 2026 3:47 PM EST

Analysis

Geno Smith Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (+118/-148).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 39.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -148.

Key Factors

Favors Over

When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, New England's unit has been dreadful this year, profiling as the worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Jets are a big 7-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
The model projects the Jets to be the 5th-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 39.9% run rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to have just 124.5 plays on offense called: the lowest number among all games this week.
Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being projected in this game) generally correlate with increased passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and lower ground volume.
Geno Smith's 2.52 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this season reflects a noteworthy diminishment in his running prowess over last season's 3.90 rate.