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Geno Smith

Geno Smith Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 6

Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers

Geno Smith Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-120/-108).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ -108.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Geno Smith has been a more important option in his offense's rushing attack this year (14.3% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (8.2%).

Geno Smith has run for many more yards per game (29.0) this season than he did last season (11.0).

Geno Smith's 10.34 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this season reflects a remarkable improvement in his running talent over last season's 5.63 rate.

As it relates to the safeties' role in stopping the run, San Francisco's unit has been awful this year, ranking as the 3rd-worst in the league. in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A throwing game script is indicated by the Seahawks being a -5-point underdog in this game.

The predictive model expects the Seahawks to be the 6th-least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 40.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to have only 126.2 plays on offense run: the 4th-fewest on the slate this week.

Geno Smith is positioned as one of the weakest QBs in the league at grinding out extra running yardage, averaging a measly 0.66 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 23rd percentile.

This year, the imposing San Francisco 49ers run defense has conceded a feeble 107.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing squads: the 10th-best in the league.

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