Geno Smith Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Geno Smith

NFL · Player Props

Geno Smith

QB · Seattle Seahawks

Rushing TD

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 2:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Geno Smith Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+408/-885).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +432 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +408.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 137.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive ends project as the 3rd-worst DE corps in the league this year with their run defense.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone no-huddle on 15.5% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-most in the league). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat accumulation.

Favors Under

The Seattle Seahawks have run the 4th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 54.9 plays per game.
The Seattle Seahawks offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in football this year at opening holes for runners.
Opposing offenses have run for the 6th-least touchdowns in football (0.56 per game) vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year.
The Seattle Seahawks have risked going for it on 4th down a measly 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in the NFL), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.
The Seattle Seahawks have incorporated motion in their offense on 28.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (5th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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