Geno Smith Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

reorder

NBA Season Tips Off Soon — Don’t Miss the Action! 🏀 03:52:23 🏀 SUBSCRIBE NOW

NFL · Player Props

Geno Smith

QB · New York Jets

Passing Yards

New York Jets vs Cleveland Browns · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 1:02 PM EST

Analysis

Geno Smith Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 199.5 (-105/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 205.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 199.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Browns defense has been something of pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing teams to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the NFL (41.0 per game) this year.
The New York Jets offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Geno Smith's 211.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season conveys a noteworthy growth in his passing proficiency over last season's 178.0 figure.
Geno Smith's 72.2% Adjusted Completion% this year reflects a material gain in his passing precision over last year's 66.8% mark.
Opposing QBs have passed for the 8th-most adjusted yards in the NFL (264.0 per game) vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the New York Jets as the 4th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 53.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect the New York Jets offense to be the 3rd-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 30.19 seconds per play.
The projections expect Geno Smith to attempt 31.4 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 6th-fewest out of all quarterbacks.
This year, the strong Cleveland Browns defense has conceded the 7th-least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing offenses: a mere 3.6 YAC.