Geno Smith Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Geno Smith

QB · New York Jets

Passing Yards

Chicago Bears vs New York Jets · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 12:37 PM EST

Analysis

Geno Smith Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 230.5 (-113/-111).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 227.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 230.5 @ -113.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A passing game script is indicated by the Jets being a -3.5-point underdog in this game.
Geno Smith's throwing accuracy has gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 66.8% to 75.3%.
Since the start of last season, the poor Bears defense has been torched for a colossal 73.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 5th-worst rate in the league.
The Chicago Bears pass defense has displayed bad efficiency since the start of last season, surrendering 8.61 adjusted yards-per-target: the 4th-most in football.

Favors Under

Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Jets are projected by the projection model to run only 62.4 offensive plays in this game: the 7th-lowest number on the slate this week.
Opposing offenses teams have been reluctant to rely on the passing game too much against the Chicago Bears, totaling the 10th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 30.4 per game) since the start of last season.
The Chicago Bears linebackers project as the best collection of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in defending receivers.