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Geno Smith

Geno Smith Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 7

Atlanta Falcons vs Seattle Seahawks

Geno Smith Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 269.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 261.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 269.5 @ +100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Seahawks are underdogs in this week's game, suggesting more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their usual approach.

The predictive model expects the Seahawks as the 2nd-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 63.5% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

The projections expect the Seattle Seahawks to run the 2nd-most total plays among all teams this week with 67.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Seahawks have called the 4th-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 60.5 plays per game.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Seattle Seahawks offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.

This year, the strong Atlanta Falcons defense has surrendered the 6th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to the opposing side: a meager 6.9 yards.

The Atlanta Falcons defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.68 yards-after-the-catch this year: the fewest in football.

The Atlanta Falcons safeties grade out as the 6th-best safety corps in the NFL this year in defending receivers.

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