Geno Smith Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Geno Smith

NFL · Player Props

Geno Smith

QB · Seattle Seahawks

Passing Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 18, 2023 12:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Geno Smith Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 245.5 (-108/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 240.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 245.5 @ -108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Seahawks are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a running game script.
Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Seahawks to pass on 62.6% of their downs: the 2nd-greatest rate on the slate this week.
Still weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being projected in this game) generally mean increased passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and reduced run volume.
This week, Geno Smith is projected by the predictive model to average the 6th-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 36.9.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, inciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the most passes in the league (41.6 per game) this year.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Seahawks to run the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 64.3 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The lowest number of plays in football have been run by the Seahawks this year (a mere 55.5 per game on average).
Geno Smith's passing precision has declined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 69.4% to 65.4%.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 10th-lowest level in football against the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year (68.1% Adjusted Completion%).

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