Geno Smith Interceptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Geno Smith

NFL · Player Props

Geno Smith

QB · New York Jets

Interceptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs New York Jets · Week 9, 2026

Updated Nov 8, 2026 1:22 PM EST

Analysis

Geno Smith Interceptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-125/+117).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +106 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +117.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a giant 9.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Jets to pass on 61.6% of their chances: the 4th-highest frequency among all teams this week.
The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may decline.
Our trusted projections expect Geno Smith to throw 35.5 passes in this contest, on balance: the 9th-most among all QBs.
As it relates to pass protection (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Jets ranks as the 5th-best in the league this year.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Jets to call the 8th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The 7th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Jets this year (a mere 54.6 per game on average).
In totaling only 0.40 interceptions per game this year, Geno Smith ranks among the top QBs in the NFL (76th percentile).
The Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks project as the 6th-best CB corps in the NFL this year in defending receivers.

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