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Geno Smith

Geno Smith Completions
Player Prop Week 7

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders

Geno Smith Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-129/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 21.5 @ +102 before it was bet up to 21.5 @ -129.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -13-point disadvantage, the Raiders are massive underdogs this week, indicating much more of a focus on passing than their normal game plan.

The leading projections forecast the Las Vegas Raiders as the 6th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 61.3% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

This year, the poor Chiefs defense has surrendered a monstrous 75.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 5th-largest rate in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The projections expect the Raiders to run the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.0 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Chiefs, totaling the 9th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 30.8 per game) this year.

Geno Smith's 65.9% Adjusted Completion% this year represents a noteable regression in his throwing precision over last year's 70.1% rate.

When it comes to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Kansas City's CB corps has been outstanding this year, projecting as the best in the league.

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