Geno Smith Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Geno Smith

NFL · Player Props

Geno Smith

QB · Seattle Seahawks

Carries

Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 23, 2023 3:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Geno Smith Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +114 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's line indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Seahawks, who are a heavy favorite by 8.5 points.
The predictive model expects Geno Smith to be a more integral piece of his team's run game in this contest (12.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (7.1% in games he has played).
As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in defending against the run, Arizona's DT corps has been atrocious this year, ranking as the worst in football. in football.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Seahawks to be the 9th-least run-heavy team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 37.1% run rate.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is anticipated by the projections to see just 127.1 offensive plays called: the 4th-lowest number among all games this week.
Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being called for in this game) typically mean increased passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and lower run volume.
Geno Smith has averaged a mere 1.6 rush attempts per game this year, one of the smallest rates in the NFL when it comes to quarterbacks (20th percentile).
The Seattle offensive line grades out as the worst in football last year at blocking for the run game.

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