Garrett Wilson Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Garrett Wilson

WR · New York Jets

Touchdowns

Chicago Bears vs New York Jets · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 1, 2026 5:57 PM EST

Analysis

Garrett Wilson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+166/-208).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -322 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -208.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A passing game script is indicated by the Jets being a -3.5-point underdog in this game.
While Garrett Wilson has garnered 18.2% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a more integral piece of New York's passing offense near the end zone in this contest at 30.8%.
When it comes to air yards, Garrett Wilson ranks in the towering 88th percentile among wide receivers since the start of last season, accumulating a whopping 85.0 per game.
Garrett Wilson's 78.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive volume) ranks him among the league leaders: 99th percentile for wideouts.
Garrett Wilson's 76.8% Adjusted Catch% this year represents a remarkable gain in his pass-catching skills over last year's 64.3% figure.

Favors Under

The New York Jets have been the 9th-most run-oriented offense in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) this year with a 50.0% red zone run rate.
Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 3rd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 124.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses teams have been reluctant to rely on the passing game too much against the Chicago Bears, totaling the 10th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 30.4 per game) since the start of last season.
The Chicago Bears linebackers project as the best collection of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in defending receivers.