Garrett Wilson Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Garrett Wilson

WR · New York Jets

Touchdowns

Tennessee Titans vs New York Jets · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 13, 2026 4:32 PM EST

Analysis

Garrett Wilson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+251/-277).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -228 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -277.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (1-mph wind) being projected in this game, while ground volume may drop-off.
The leading projections forecast Garrett Wilson to be a much bigger part of his team's air attack near the end zone in this week's game (24.2% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been last year (19.0% in games he has played).
Garrett Wilson has put up a staggering 80.0 air yards per game last year: 86th percentile when it comes to WRs.
Garrett Wilson slots into the 99th percentile when it comes to wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive usage) with an astounding 82.8 figure last year.
Garrett Wilson grades out in the 95th percentile among wideouts when it comes to catching TDs last year, averaging an exceptional 0.50 per game.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the New York Jets to be the 10th-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 56.2% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses teams have been disinclined to test the pass defense of the Titans, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in the league (just 29.9 per game) last year.
The New York Jets O-line ranks as the 9th-worst in the NFL last year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Last year, the anemic Titans run defense has allowed a monstrous 1.24 rushing touchdowns per game to opposing squads: the 4th-worst rate in football.