Garrett Wilson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Garrett Wilson

WR · New York Jets

Receptions

Chicago Bears vs New York Jets · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 1, 2026 4:52 PM EST

Analysis

Garrett Wilson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-109/-119).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -109.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A passing game script is indicated by the Jets being a -3.5-point underdog in this game.
The leading projections forecast Garrett Wilson to notch 10.2 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 97th percentile among wideouts.
Garrett Wilson has been a big part of his team's offense, garnering a Target Share of 32.1% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 99th percentile among WRs.
With an impressive 5.0 adjusted receptions per game (95th percentile) since the start of last season, Garrett Wilson rates among the best pass-catching wide receivers in the NFL.
Garrett Wilson's 76.8% Adjusted Catch% this year represents a remarkable gain in his pass-catching skills over last year's 64.3% figure.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 3rd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 124.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses teams have been reluctant to rely on the passing game too much against the Chicago Bears, totaling the 10th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 30.4 per game) since the start of last season.
The Chicago Bears linebackers project as the best collection of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in defending receivers.