Garrett Wilson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Garrett Wilson

WR · New York Jets

Receptions

Tennessee Titans vs New York Jets · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 13, 2026 4:32 PM EST

Analysis

Garrett Wilson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-124/-102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -108 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -124.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (1-mph wind) being projected in this game, while ground volume may drop-off.
The model projects Garrett Wilson to earn 8.7 targets in this week's game, on balance, placing him in the 95th percentile among wide receivers.
With an exceptional 4.3 adjusted catches per game (93rd percentile) last year, Garrett Wilson has been among the leading wide receivers in the game in football.
The Tennessee Titans pass defense has been torched for the highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (71.3%) versus wide receivers last year (71.3%).
The Tennessee Titans cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-worst collection of CBs in football last year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the New York Jets to be the 10th-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 56.2% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses teams have been disinclined to test the pass defense of the Titans, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in the league (just 29.9 per game) last year.
The projections expect Garrett Wilson to be much less involved in his offense's air attack in this contest (28.0% projected Target Share) than he has been last year (34.2% in games he has played).
The New York Jets O-line ranks as the 9th-worst in the NFL last year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.