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Garrett Wilson

Garrett Wilson Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

New York Jets vs Denver Broncos

Garrett Wilson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+135/-170).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -140 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ +135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the present time, the 4th-most pass-heavy team in football (63.1% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the New York Jets.

New York's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially deflated (and rushing stats propped up a bit) as a result of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL. We should be able to expect some regression with improved conditions in this week's contest.

Garrett Wilson has run a route on 97.9% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, placing him in the 100th percentile when it comes to WRs.

In this game, Garrett Wilson is projected by the projection model to place in the 95th percentile among WRs with 9.3 targets.

With an impressive 5.5 adjusted receptions per game (92nd percentile) since the start of last season, Garrett Wilson ranks as one of the top wide receivers in the league in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's line indicates a rushing game script for the Jets, who are favored by 6 points.

Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Jets are forecasted by the model to run only 62.8 plays on offense in this contest: the 10th-lowest number on the slate this week.

The Jets offensive line grades out as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.

The Denver Broncos safeties grade out as the 2nd-best safety corps in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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