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Garrett Wilson

Garrett Wilson Receptions
Player Prop Week 2

Tennessee Titans vs New York Jets

 
 
 
Garrett Wilson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-200/+150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -200.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The leading projections forecast the New York Jets as the 10th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 59.7% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • New York's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially too low (and rushing stats inflated) on account of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league. We should be able to expect some correction with better weather in this game.
  • Garrett Wilson has run a route on 98.1% of his offense's passing plays since the start of last season, placing him in the 99th percentile among wide receivers.
  • In this week's contest, Garrett Wilson is predicted by the predictive model to secure a spot in the 98th percentile among wide receivers with 10.3 targets.
  • Garrett Wilson has been one of the leading WRs in the game last year, averaging an excellent 5.6 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 92nd percentile.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • A running game script is implied by the Jets being a 4-point favorite this week.
  • Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The New York O-line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all pass game stats across the board.
  • The Titans safeties grade out as the 6th-best unit in the league since the start of last season in defending receivers.

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