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Garrett Wilson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-165/+125).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ +130 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ +125.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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A passing game script is indicated by the Jets being a -5.5-point underdog in this week's game.The model projects the Jets to be the 4th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.The New York Jets have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football last year, which should lead to higher pass volume, lower running volume, and improved passing offense effectiveness when facing more favorable conditions in this week's contest.Opposing offenses have averaged 36.2 pass attempts per game against the San Francisco 49ers defense last year: 5th-most in the league.Garrett Wilson has run a route on 98.0% of his team's dropbacks last year, placing him in the 99th percentile among wide receivers.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the New York Jets are expected by the projections to run just 63.0 total plays in this game: the lowest number on the slate this week.Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being predicted in this game) usually prompt lessened passing efficiency, reduced air volume, and higher run volume.When it comes to protecting the passer (and the influence it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the New York Jets ranks as the worst in football last year.With a weak 58.8% Adjusted Completion Rate (20th percentile) last year, Garrett Wilson places as one of the most unreliable receivers in the league among wideouts.When it comes to linebackers in covering receivers, San Francisco's LB corps has been tremendous last year, profiling as the 2nd-best in the NFL.
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