Garrett Wilson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Garrett Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Garrett Wilson

WR · New York Jets

Receptions

Denver Broncos vs New York Jets · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 9, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Garrett Wilson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-140/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ +120 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Jets will be forced to use backup QB Zach Wilson in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
Garrett Wilson has been less involved as a potential target this season (98.6% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (86.4%).
The model projects Garrett Wilson to total 9.6 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 96th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
Garrett Wilson has been among the leading WRs in the league this year, averaging a stellar 5.5 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 87th percentile.
Garrett Wilson's 66.7% Adjusted Completion Rate this year indicates a a noteable gain in his receiving proficiency over last year's 61.1% figure.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the New York Jets are anticipated by the projection model to run just 61.1 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The New York Jets have called the fewest plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 49.5 plays per game.

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