Garrett Wilson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Garrett Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Garrett Wilson

WR · New York Jets

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Garrett Wilson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-145/+110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets may throw the ball less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) since they be forced to use backup quarterback Zach Wilson.
The model projects the New York Jets offensive approach to skew 1.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett now calling the plays.
This game's spread implies a passing game script for the Jets, who are -6.5-point underdogs.
Our trusted projections expect the Jets as the 4th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 61.4% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Garrett Wilson has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (97.3% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (86.4%).

Favors Under

Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Jets are predicted by the projection model to call only 62.4 total plays in this contest: the 3rd-fewest among all teams this week.
The 10th-fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the Jets this year (just 56.0 per game on average).
In regards to pocket protection (and the effect it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Jets profiles as the 2nd-worst in the league this year.
The Bills cornerbacks project as the 7th-best collection of CBs in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.

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