Garrett Wilson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Garrett Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Garrett Wilson

WR · New York Jets

Receptions

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Garrett Wilson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-142/+104).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -137 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
The New York Jets have called the 5th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a colossal 69.5 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 40.0 pass attempts per game against the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 8th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Garrett Wilson to accrue 6.8 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 75th percentile among wideouts.
Garrett Wilson has been a key part of his team's offense, garnering a Target Share of 21.1% this year, which ranks in the 80th percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the 11th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 64.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New York Jets O-line ranks as the 3rd-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has allowed the 5th-lowest Completion% in football (60.3%) versus wide receivers this year (60.3%).
The Miami Dolphins defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 3rd-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The New York Jets have faced a stacked the box on a measly 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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