Garrett Wilson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Garrett Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Garrett Wilson

WR · New York Jets

Receptions

New York Jets vs Detroit Lions · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:26 AM EST

Analysis

Garrett Wilson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+120/-157).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +123 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 134.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New York Jets have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 59.8 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.8 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: 3rd-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Garrett Wilson to total 7.7 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among wide receivers.
Garrett Wilson has been heavily involved in his team's offense, posting a Target Share of 22.7% this year, which puts him in the 82nd percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

The New York Jets O-line profiles as the 10th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
The New York Jets have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have incorporated play action on a measly 23.1% of their passing plays since the start of last season (8th-least in football), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

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