Garrett Wilson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Garrett Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Garrett Wilson

WR · New York Jets

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 12, 2022 4:01 AM EST

Analysis

Garrett Wilson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+140/-170).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets offense to be the 6th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 26.49 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Garrett Wilson to notch 9.3 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 93rd percentile among WRs.
Garrett Wilson has been heavily involved in his team's pass game, posting a Target Share of 23.3% this year, which ranks in the 86th percentile among wideouts.
Garrett Wilson has been among the leading wide receivers in the game this year, averaging a terrific 4.9 receptions per game while checking in at the 84th percentile.

Favors Under

The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers grade out as the 4th-best unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The New York Jets have faced a stacked the box on a measly 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have utilized play action on a mere 23.1% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (7th-least in the league), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

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