Garrett Wilson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Garrett Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Garrett Wilson

WR · New York Jets

Receptions

New York Jets vs Chicago Bears · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Garrett Wilson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+120/-160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Jets will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Mike White in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
THE BLITZ projects Garrett Wilson to accumulate 6.8 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 75th percentile among wideouts.
Garrett Wilson has been an integral part of his team's pass game, earning a Target Share of 22.1% this year, which ranks him in the 82nd percentile among WRs.
Garrett Wilson has been among the best WRs in the NFL this year, averaging an impressive 4.5 receptions per game while ranking in the 81st percentile.
The Chicago Bears pass defense has allowed the 2nd-highest Completion% in the NFL (71.6%) vs. wideouts this year (71.6%).

Favors Under

The Jets are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 5th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 51.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 126.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 26.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in the NFL.
The New York Jets O-line ranks as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

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