Garrett Wilson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Garrett Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Garrett Wilson

WR · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs New York Jets · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 13, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Garrett Wilson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 60.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 64.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 60.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Jets may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to start backup quarterback Zach Wilson.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Jets to pass on 60.0% of their plays: the 7th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.
The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.
This week, Garrett Wilson is anticipated by the model to slot into the 96th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 10.0 targets.
Garrett Wilson has accumulated far more air yards this year (112.0 per game) than he did last year (94.0 per game).

Favors Under

The model projects the Jets to call the 4th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.4 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The Jets have run the 9th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling just 55.4 plays per game.
Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Las Vegas Raiders, averaging the 8th-fewest attempts in football (just 33.8 per game) this year.
The New York offensive line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.
With a feeble 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (1st percentile) this year, Garrett Wilson places among the top wide receivers in the game in football in space.

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