Garrett Wilson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Garrett Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Garrett Wilson

WR · New York Jets

Receiving TD

Green Bay Packers vs New York Jets · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Garrett Wilson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+272/-460).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +315 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +272.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are an enormous 7.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
The New York Jets have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 65.0 plays per game.
Garrett Wilson has compiled a colossal 72.0 air yards per game this year: 78th percentile among WRs.
Garrett Wilson grades out in the 86th percentile among wide receivers when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging a terrific 0.40 per game.
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has allowed the highest Completion% in football (80.6%) versus wide receivers this year (80.6%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the 2nd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.2 pass attempts per game against the Green Bay Packers defense this year: least in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Garrett Wilson to be a much smaller piece of his offense's passing offense near the end zone this week (23.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (32.1% in games he has played).
The New York Jets offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
The New York Jets have gone up against a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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