Garrett Wilson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Garrett Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Garrett Wilson

WR · New York Jets

Receiving TD

Cleveland Browns vs New York Jets · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Garrett Wilson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+365/-728).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -683 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -728.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a 6-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
The New York Jets O-line has afforded their quarterback 2.69 seconds before the pass (5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The New York Jets have gone for it on 4th down 22.0% of the time since the start of last season (10th-most in the NFL), which usually means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Jets to call the 7th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.7 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New York Jets have run the 10th-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a mere 61.4 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Garrett Wilson to be a much smaller part of his team's air attack near the goal line this week (15.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (25.0% in games he has played).
The New York Jets offensive line ranks as the 10th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The Cleveland Browns pass defense has yielded the 9th-lowest Completion% in football (64.6%) to wideouts since the start of last season (64.6%).

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