Garrett Wilson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Garrett Wilson

NFL · Player Props

Garrett Wilson

WR · New York Jets

Receiving TD

New York Jets vs Detroit Lions · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Garrett Wilson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+212/-327).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +236 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +212.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 134.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New York Jets have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 59.8 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.8 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: 3rd-most in football.
Garrett Wilson has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 26.2% this year, which puts him in the 94th percentile among wideouts.
Garrett Wilson has notched a whopping 72.0 air yards per game this year: 83rd percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

The New York Jets O-line profiles as the 10th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
The New York Jets have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have incorporated play action on a measly 23.1% of their passing plays since the start of last season (8th-least in football), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

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