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Gardner Minshew

Gardner Minshew TD Passes
Player Prop Week 8

Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs

Gardner Minshew TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-250/+185).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -220 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -250.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

With a 7-point advantage, the Raiders are a heavy favorite in this week's game, implying much more of a reliance on running than their normal approach.

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Raiders to pass on 62.1% of their chances: the 5th-greatest rate on the slate this week.

Right now, the 7th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL near the end zone (58.9% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Las Vegas Raiders.

The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may go down.

The predictive model expects Gardner Minshew to attempt 36.1 passes this week, on balance: the 9th-most among all QBs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Raiders are forecasted by the predictive model to run just 63.2 offensive plays in this contest: the 9th-fewest among all teams this week.

With a lousy ratio of just 0.67 per game (23rd percentile), Gardner Minshew rates among the weakest touchdown passers in football this year.

This year, the imposing Kansas City Chiefs defense has yielded a feeble 66.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 3rd-best rate in the league.

When it comes to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Kansas City's unit has been great this year, projecting as the 7th-best in the league.

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