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Gardner Minshew

Gardner Minshew TD Passes
Player Prop Week 4

Las Vegas Raiders vs Cleveland Browns

Gardner Minshew TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-275/+210).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -225 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +210.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 7th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 59.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

With a 77.8% rate of passing the ball near the end zone (in a neutral context) this year, the most pass-focused team in the NFL in these cases has been the Las Vegas Raiders.

The projections expect this game to have the 4th-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.2 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

When talking about pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all pass game metrics), the O-line of the Raiders grades out as the 4th-best in the league since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Raiders have called the 3rd-fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a mere 54.9 plays per game.

In this week's contest, Gardner Minshew is predicted by our trusted projection set to average the 10th-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 34.8.

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been wary to rely on the passing game too much against the Cleveland Browns, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 31.4 per game) since the start of last season.

Since the start of last season, the daunting Browns defense has given up a paltry 62.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the smallest rate in football.

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